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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.