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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.