Everyday Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures
The mean number of daily murders monthly in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official data. But, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder data might not signal enhanced countrywide security.
Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers
Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the head of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The figures in murders that have been recorded in these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the lowest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.
Historical Background and Official Strategy
Violent organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.
That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.
At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”
The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
- Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.
Expert Caution and Data Limitations
Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.
“It would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”
Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.
“Data on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”
Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily killings was similarly problematic because it may mask periods when there were especially elevated levels of murders.
“Relying on the daily average renders surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.
Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success
Where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.
“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Public Anger
However despite these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.
Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to show their frustration at graft and cartel violence.
“The government presents [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.