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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."